Weekly Trading Forecasts on Major Pairs (June 30 – July 4, 2014)‏

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Here’s the market outlook for this week:

EURUSD-PairEURUSD
Dominant bias: Bullish
This pair is now in an uptrend, though the movement is tardy and shaky. Price has been very volatile as the bulls and bears fight for control. As a result of the Bullish Confirmation Pattern in the market, it is more likely that this pair will go further upwards. The resistance line at 1.3650 was tested and could be tested again, suggesting a breach to the upside.
 

 

USDCHF-PairUSDCHF
Dominant bias: Bearish
USD/CHF has also been slow and tardy, but bearish in outlook. So far, the market has been able to maintain its bearish bias, going lower in a slow and steady manner. This downward move is also riddled with high volatility. Since sellers have supremacy here, there is a possibility that price may reach the support level at 0.8900.

 

 

GBPUSD-PairGBPUSD
Dominant bias: Bullish
Here, the barrier to further northward movement remains the distribution territory at 1.7050, which was vigorously tested last week. It was tested this week as well but price is yet to close above it. After suffering a transient setback, price is now trying to go upwards to challenge the distribution territory again. This must be broken for the bullish outlook to maintain its validity.

 

 

USDJPY-Pair-05USDJPY
Dominant bias: Bearish
Short-term orders appear more logical than long-term ones at the moment, because the recent signals have been short-lived. Right now, there is a bearish indication in the market, so it makes sense to seek short trades.

 

 

EURJPYEURJPY
Dominant bias: Bearish
The recent ‘buy’ signal on this cross was weak and unsustainable. The bias has turned bearish because of perceived strength in the Yen. The EUR position is too delicate, and this is reflected in its weakness against the Yen. Price tested the demand zone at 138.00; and with renewed bearish effort, it could go lower to test the demand zone at 137.00.

 

 

I’d like to conclude this forecast with the following quote:

“It is the sum of all trades that is relevant for the trading result, not the single trade.” – Jens Klatt

USD/JPY Wave analysis and forecast for 20.06 – 27.06

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USD/JPY Wave analysis and forecast for 20.06 – 27.06: The pair is likely to decline.

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Estimated pivot point is at the level of 102.34.

Our opinion: Sell the pair below the level of 102.34 with the target of 100.0.

Alternative scenario: Breakout of the level of 102.34 will allow the price to continue growth to the level of 104.0.

Analysis: Presumably, the formation of the final wave of the zigzag АВС is still ongoing on the daily timeframe. Locally, the fifth wave is being formed, within which the corrective wave (b) of the zigzag has completed and the final wave (c) of V started to develop. If this assumption is correct, the pair will continue to decline to the level of 100.0. Critical level for this scenario is 102.34.

USDJPY-D1 USDJPY-H4

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USD/CHF Wave analysis and forecast for 20.06 – 27.06

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USD/CHF Wave analysis and forecast for 20.06 – 27.06: The pair is undergoing correction. The pair is likely to grow.

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Estimated pivot point is at the level of 0.8906.

Our opinion: Buy the pair above the level of 0.8906 with the target of 0.9150 – 0.9200.

Alternative scenario: Breakout of the level of 0.8906 will enable the pair to continue the decline to the levels of 0.8850 – 0.88.

Analysis: Presumably, the formation of the uptrend continues, within which the third wave will be developed. Locally, the formation of the downward correction as the second wave (ii) of iii is nearing completion. If this assumption is correct, following the completion of the correction, it makes sense to expect that the pair will continue to rise up to the levels of 0.91 – 092. Critical level for this scenario is the level of 0.8906. In is also possible that in case of breakdown of the critical level, the correction may go up to the levels 0.8850 – 0.88 in the second wave of the senior level.

USDCHF-D1 USDCHF-H4

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GBP/USD Wave analysis and forecast for 20.06 – 27.06

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GBP/USD Wave analysis and forecast for 20.06 – 27.06: Uptrend in the pair continues. There is a chance of the local correction.

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Estimated pivot point is at the level of 1.6917.

Our opinion: In the short-term: wait for the completion of the fifth wave v of (iii) and the reversal and then sell the pair with the target of 1.6950 and stop-loss near the local highs. In the medium-term: wait for the formation of the fourth wave (iv) and sell the pair above the level of 1.6917 with the target of 1.71.

Alternative scenario: Breakout and consolidation below the level of 1.6917 will enable the price to continue the decline to the level of 1.67 – 1.66.

Analysis: Presumably, the formation of the ascending momentum in the fifth final wave of the senior level is still ongoing. At the moment the third wave of the junior level is nearly completed, within which the fifth wave v of (iii) is close to completion. If this assumption is correct, in the near future the pair will continue to decline in the fourth wave of the senior level towards the level of 1.6917. Critical level for this scenario is 1.6917.

GBPUSD-D1

GBPUSD-H4

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EUR/USD: Wave analysis and forecast of 20.06 – 27.06

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EUR/USD: Wave analysis and forecast of 20.06 – 27.06: Local correction is nearing completion. The decline in the pair is likely to continue.

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Estimated pivot point is at the level of 1.3680.

Our opinion: Sell the pair from correction below the level of 1.3680 with the target of 1.34 – 1.33.

Alternative scenario: Breakout of the level of 1.3680 will allow the price to continue the growth up to the levels of 1.3750 – 1.38.

Analysis: Presumably, the formation of the local correction in the second wave, which took shape of the irregular plain, has completed. Locally, the in-lead wave i of (iii) has been formed and minor correction in the second wave ii of (iii) is nearing completion. If this assumption is correct, following the completion of the current correction the pair will continue to decline in the third wave iii of (iii). Critical level for this scenario is 1.3680. In case of breakdown the pair will continue to grow to the levels of 1.3750 – 1.38.

EURUSD-D1

EURUSD-H4

Alternatively:

EURUSD-H4-2

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USD/CAD Wave analysis and forecast for 13.06 – 20.06

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USD/CAD Wave analysis and forecast for 13.06 – 20.06: The pair is likely to grow. Estimated pivot point is at the level of 1.0819.

Our opinion: Buy the pair above the level of 1.0819 with the target of 1.0980 – 1.1070.

Alternative scenario: Breakout of the level of 1.0819 will allow the pair to continue the decline to the level of 1.0720.

Analysis: Presumably, the formation of the downward correction in the fourth wave с of 4 has completed. Locally, the in-lead wave as the impetus has been formed and the “bearish” correction in the wave (ii) is nearing completion. If this assumption is correct, and the price does not break down the critical level of 1.0819, it makes sense to expect that the growth in the pair will continue up to the levels of 1.0980 – 1.1070 in the third wave.

USDCAD-D1

USDCAD-H4

 

USD/JPY Wave analysis and forecast for 13.06 – 20.06

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USD/JPY Wave analysis and forecast for 13.06 – 20.06: The pair is likely to decline. Estimated pivot point is at the level of 102.79.

Our opinion: Sell the pair below the level of 102.79 with the target of 100.0.

Alternative scenario: Breakout of the level of 102.79 will allow the price to continue growth to the level of 104.0.

Analysis: Presumably, the formation of the final wave of the zigzag АВС is still ongoing on the daily timeframe. Locally, the fifth wave is being formed, within which the wave (a) of the zigzag has completed. If this assumption is correct, following the completion of the local correction (b) of V, the pair will continue to decline to the level of 100.0. Critical level for this scenario is 102.79.

USDJPY-D1

USDJPY-H4

USD/CHF Wave analysis and forecast for 13.06 – 20.06

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USD/CHF Wave analysis and forecast for 13.06 – 20.06: The pair is undergoing correction. A chance of the rise in the pair is preserved.

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Estimated pivot point is at the level of 0.8906.

Our opinion: Buy the pair above the level of 0.8906 with the target of 0.9150 – 0.9200.

Alternative scenario: Breakout of the level of 0.8906 will allow the pair to continue the decline to the levels of 0.88 – 0.87.

Analysis: Presumably, the formation of ascending trend continues, within which the third wave will be developed. Locally, downward correction is being formed as the second wave (ii) of iii. If this assumption is correct, following the completion of the correction, it makes sense to expect that the pair will continue to grow up to the levels of 0.91 – 092. Critical level for this scenario is the level of 0.8906.

USDCHF-D1

USDCHF-H4

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GBP/USD Wave analysis and forecast for 13.06 – 20.06

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GBP/USD Wave analysis and forecast for 13.06 – 20.06: Uptrend in the pair will continue.

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Estimated pivot point is at the level of 1.6850.

Our opinion: Buy the pair from correction above the level of 1.6850 with the target of 1.71.

Alternative scenario: Breakout and consolidation below the level of 1.6850 will enable the price to continue the decline to the level of 1.67 – 1.66.

Analysis: The price has broken down the critical level, proposed in the previous scenario of the decline in the pair and continued to form the uptrend. It is likely that on the daily timeframe the diagonal will formed in the fifth wave and locally the fifth final wave of the long-term uptrend is being developed. If this assumption is correct, in the short-term the pair will continue to grow to the upper line of the diagonal at 1.71. Critical level for this scenario is 1.648.

GBPUSD-D1

GBPUSD-H4

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EUR/USD: Wave analysis and forecast of 13.06 – 20.06

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EUR/USD: Wave analysis and forecast of 13.06 – 20.06: Euro is under pressure, downtrend prevails. 

Estimated pivot point is at the level of 1.3680.

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Our opinion: Sell the pair from correction below the level of 1.3680 with the target of 1.34 – 1.33.

Alternative scenario: Breakout of the level of 1.3680 will allow the price to continue growth to the levels of 1.38 – 1.3850.

Analysis: Presumably, the formation of the local correction in the second wave, which took shape of the irregular plain, has completed. Locally, the in-lead wave i of (iii) has been formed, as well as the small correction in the second wave ii of (iii). If this assumption is correct, following the completion of the correction the pair will continue to decline in the third wave iii of (iii).

 

EURUSD-D1

EURUSD-H4

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USD/CAD Wave analysis and forecast for 23.05 – 30.05

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USD/CAD Wave analysis and forecast for 23.05 – 30.05: The pair is likely to grow.

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Estimated pivot point is at the level of 1.0848.

Our opinion: Buy the pair above the level of 1.0848 with the target of 1.1030 – 1.11.

Alternative scenario: Breakout of the level of 1.0848 will enable the pair to continue decline to the level of 1.0730.

Analysis:Presumably, the formation of the downward correction as the fourth wave has completed. Locally, the first wave in the fifth wave of the senior level is being formed. If this assumption is correct, and the price does not break down the critical level of 1.0848, theUSDCAD-D1

USDCAD-H4 pair is likely to grow.

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