USD/CAD Wave analysis and forecast for 27.06 – 04.07

USD/CAD Wave analysis and forecast for 27.06 – 04.07: Correction has completed. The pair is likely to grow.

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Estimated pivot point is at the level of 1.0750.

Our opinion: Buy the pair above the level of 1.0750 with the target of 1.09 – 1.10.

Alternative scenario: The pair will continue to decline to the levels of 1.06 – 1.05.

Analysis: Presumably, the formation of the downward correction in the fourth wave с of 4 is nearing completion. Locally, downward momentum in the wave с of 4 is nearing completion. If this assumption is correct, in the near future the pair may reverse and start to grow in the fifth wave of the senior level.

USDCAD-D1

USDCAD-H4

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USD/JPY Wave analysis and forecast for 27.06 – 04.07

USD/JPY Wave analysis and forecast for 27.06 – 04.07: The pair is likely to decline.

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Estimated pivot point is at the level of 102.19.

Our opinion: Sell the pair from correction below the level of 102.19 with the target 100.80 – 100.0.

Alternative scenario: Violation of handle 102,19 will let a cuurence pair continue to grow up to handle 103,0.

Analysis: A breakout of the level 102.19 will let the pair grow up to the level 103.0 Admittedly, the formation of the last ABC zigzag wave under daily timeframe is continuing. Locally, there is a formation of the fifth wave, under which the (a),(b),(c) zigzag is forming. If the statement is true, the pair will fall near the level 100.0. The level 102.19 is critical for this scenario.

USDJPY-D1

USDJPY-H4

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USD/CHF Wave analysis and forecast for 27.06 – 04.07

USD/CHF Wave analysis and forecast for 27.06 – 04.07: The pair is undergoing correction. A chance of growth in the pair remains.

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Estimated pivot point is at the level of 0.8906.

Our opinion: Buy the pair above the level of 0.8906 with the target of 0.9150 – 0.9200.

Alternative scenario: Breakout of the level of 0.8906 will enable the pair to continue the decline to the levels of 0.8850 – 0.88.

Analysis: Presumably, the formation of the local correction as the second wave is nearing completion. Locally, it is not excluded that the formation of the wave (c) of ii has completed. If this assumption is correct, the pair will continue to grow in the third wave. As an alternative scenario: if the pair breaks down the critical level of 0.8906, the correction in the second wave may continue up to the levels of 0.8850 – 0.88.

USDCHF-D1

USDCHF-H4

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GBP/USD Wave analysis and forecast for 27.06 – 04.07

GBP/USD Wave analysis and forecast for 27.06 – 04.07: Ascending trend in the pair is nearing completion. It is likely that long-term decline in the pair will begin.

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Estimated pivot point is at the level of 1.6950.

Our opinion: In the short-term: Buy the pair from correction above the level of 1.6950 with the target of 1.7080. In the medium-term: wait for the completion of the fifth wave and the reversal and sell the pair with the target of 1.66 or lower.

Alternative scenario: Breakout and consolidation below the level of 1.6950 will enable the price to continue the decline to the levels of 1.67 – 1.66.

Analysis: Presumably, the formation of the ascending momentum in the fifth final wave of the senior level is nearing completion. At the moment, the fifth wave of the junior level is nearing completion. If this assumption is correct, the pair may decline in the long-term.

GBPUSD-D1

GBPUSD-H4

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EUR/USD: Wave analysis and forecast of 27.06 – 04.07

EUR/USD: Wave analysis and forecast of 27.06 – 04.07: The pair is undergoing correction. The pair is likely to decline in the medium-term.

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Estimated pivot point is at the level of 1.3680.

Our opinion: Sell the pair from correction below the level of 1.3680 with the target of 1.34 – 1.33.

Alternative scenario: Breakout of the level of 1.3680 will allow the price to continue the growth up to the levels of 1.3750 – 1.38.

Analysis: Presumably, the formation of the local correction in the second wave, which took shape of the irregular plain, is nearing completion. Locally it is possible that the wave c of (ii) has been formed, and if this assumption is correct, the pair will continue to decline in the third wave. Critical level for this scenario is 1.3680. If this level is broken down the pair will continue to grow, and the correction will deepen to the level of 1.3750 – 1.38 in the second wave.

EURUSD-D1

EURUSD-H4

 

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Weekly Trading Forecasts on Major Pairs (June 30 – July 4, 2014)‏

Here’s the market outlook for this week:

EURUSD-PairEURUSD
Dominant bias: Bullish
This pair is now in an uptrend, though the movement is tardy and shaky. Price has been very volatile as the bulls and bears fight for control. As a result of the Bullish Confirmation Pattern in the market, it is more likely that this pair will go further upwards. The resistance line at 1.3650 was tested and could be tested again, suggesting a breach to the upside.
 

 

USDCHF-PairUSDCHF
Dominant bias: Bearish
USD/CHF has also been slow and tardy, but bearish in outlook. So far, the market has been able to maintain its bearish bias, going lower in a slow and steady manner. This downward move is also riddled with high volatility. Since sellers have supremacy here, there is a possibility that price may reach the support level at 0.8900.

 

 

GBPUSD-PairGBPUSD
Dominant bias: Bullish
Here, the barrier to further northward movement remains the distribution territory at 1.7050, which was vigorously tested last week. It was tested this week as well but price is yet to close above it. After suffering a transient setback, price is now trying to go upwards to challenge the distribution territory again. This must be broken for the bullish outlook to maintain its validity.

 

 

USDJPY-Pair-05USDJPY
Dominant bias: Bearish
Short-term orders appear more logical than long-term ones at the moment, because the recent signals have been short-lived. Right now, there is a bearish indication in the market, so it makes sense to seek short trades.

 

 

EURJPYEURJPY
Dominant bias: Bearish
The recent ‘buy’ signal on this cross was weak and unsustainable. The bias has turned bearish because of perceived strength in the Yen. The EUR position is too delicate, and this is reflected in its weakness against the Yen. Price tested the demand zone at 138.00; and with renewed bearish effort, it could go lower to test the demand zone at 137.00.

 

 

I’d like to conclude this forecast with the following quote:

It is the sum of all trades that is relevant for the trading result, not the single trade.” – Jens Klatt

USD/JPY Wave analysis and forecast for 20.06 – 27.06

USD/JPY Wave analysis and forecast for 20.06 – 27.06: The pair is likely to decline.

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Estimated pivot point is at the level of 102.34.

Our opinion: Sell the pair below the level of 102.34 with the target of 100.0.

Alternative scenario: Breakout of the level of 102.34 will allow the price to continue growth to the level of 104.0.

Analysis: Presumably, the formation of the final wave of the zigzag АВС is still ongoing on the daily timeframe. Locally, the fifth wave is being formed, within which the corrective wave (b) of the zigzag has completed and the final wave (c) of V started to develop. If this assumption is correct, the pair will continue to decline to the level of 100.0. Critical level for this scenario is 102.34.

USDJPY-D1 USDJPY-H4

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USD/CHF Wave analysis and forecast for 20.06 – 27.06

USD/CHF Wave analysis and forecast for 20.06 – 27.06: The pair is undergoing correction. The pair is likely to grow.

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Estimated pivot point is at the level of 0.8906.

Our opinion: Buy the pair above the level of 0.8906 with the target of 0.9150 – 0.9200.

Alternative scenario: Breakout of the level of 0.8906 will enable the pair to continue the decline to the levels of 0.8850 – 0.88.

Analysis: Presumably, the formation of the uptrend continues, within which the third wave will be developed. Locally, the formation of the downward correction as the second wave (ii) of iii is nearing completion. If this assumption is correct, following the completion of the correction, it makes sense to expect that the pair will continue to rise up to the levels of 0.91 – 092. Critical level for this scenario is the level of 0.8906. In is also possible that in case of breakdown of the critical level, the correction may go up to the levels 0.8850 – 0.88 in the second wave of the senior level.

USDCHF-D1 USDCHF-H4

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GBP/USD Wave analysis and forecast for 20.06 – 27.06

GBP/USD Wave analysis and forecast for 20.06 – 27.06: Uptrend in the pair continues. There is a chance of the local correction.

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Estimated pivot point is at the level of 1.6917.

Our opinion: In the short-term: wait for the completion of the fifth wave v of (iii) and the reversal and then sell the pair with the target of 1.6950 and stop-loss near the local highs. In the medium-term: wait for the formation of the fourth wave (iv) and sell the pair above the level of 1.6917 with the target of 1.71.

Alternative scenario: Breakout and consolidation below the level of 1.6917 will enable the price to continue the decline to the level of 1.67 – 1.66.

Analysis: Presumably, the formation of the ascending momentum in the fifth final wave of the senior level is still ongoing. At the moment the third wave of the junior level is nearly completed, within which the fifth wave v of (iii) is close to completion. If this assumption is correct, in the near future the pair will continue to decline in the fourth wave of the senior level towards the level of 1.6917. Critical level for this scenario is 1.6917.

GBPUSD-D1

GBPUSD-H4

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EUR/USD: Wave analysis and forecast of 20.06 – 27.06

EUR/USD: Wave analysis and forecast of 20.06 – 27.06: Local correction is nearing completion. The decline in the pair is likely to continue.

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Estimated pivot point is at the level of 1.3680.

Our opinion: Sell the pair from correction below the level of 1.3680 with the target of 1.34 – 1.33.

Alternative scenario: Breakout of the level of 1.3680 will allow the price to continue the growth up to the levels of 1.3750 – 1.38.

Analysis: Presumably, the formation of the local correction in the second wave, which took shape of the irregular plain, has completed. Locally, the in-lead wave i of (iii) has been formed and minor correction in the second wave ii of (iii) is nearing completion. If this assumption is correct, following the completion of the current correction the pair will continue to decline in the third wave iii of (iii). Critical level for this scenario is 1.3680. In case of breakdown the pair will continue to grow to the levels of 1.3750 – 1.38.

EURUSD-D1

EURUSD-H4

Alternatively:

EURUSD-H4-2

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USD/CAD Wave analysis and forecast for 13.06 – 20.06

USD/CAD Wave analysis and forecast for 13.06 – 20.06: The pair is likely to grow. Estimated pivot point is at the level of 1.0819.

Our opinion: Buy the pair above the level of 1.0819 with the target of 1.0980 – 1.1070.

Alternative scenario: Breakout of the level of 1.0819 will allow the pair to continue the decline to the level of 1.0720.

Analysis: Presumably, the formation of the downward correction in the fourth wave с of 4 has completed. Locally, the in-lead wave as the impetus has been formed and the “bearish” correction in the wave (ii) is nearing completion. If this assumption is correct, and the price does not break down the critical level of 1.0819, it makes sense to expect that the growth in the pair will continue up to the levels of 1.0980 – 1.1070 in the third wave.

USDCAD-D1

USDCAD-H4