USD/JPY Wave analysis and forecast for 10.07 – 18.07

USD/JPY Wave analysis and forecast for 10.07 – 18.07: The pair is likely to grow.

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Estimated pivot point is at the level of 101.20.

Our opinion: Sell the pair from correction above the level of 101.20 with the target 103.00.

Alternative scenario: Breakout of the level of 101.20 will allow the price to continue the decline to the level of 100.50.

Analysis: Within the daily timeframe it is not excluded that horizontal correction as the wave (B) is being formed, which may take a shape of a triangle. At the moment it is likely that the wave C, as the double zigzag, is being formed. Locally, it seems that the third wave of a zigzag (c) is being developed. If this assumption is correct the pair will continue to rise to the level of 103.00. Critical level for this scenario is 101.20.

USDJPY-D1

USDJPY-H4

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USD/CHF Wave analysis and forecast for 10.07 – 18.07

USD/CHF Wave analysis and forecast for 10.07 – 18.07: The pair is likely to go up.

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Estimated pivot point is at the level of 0.8854.

Our opinion: Buy the pair from the correction above the level of 0.8854 with the target of 0.9150 – 0.9200.

Alternative scenario: Breakout of the level of 0.8854 will enable the pair to continue the decline to the levels of 0.88 – 0.8750.

Analysis: Presumably, the formation of the local correction as the second wave has completed. Locally, small in-lead momentum has been formed, as well as minor bearish correction. If this assumption is correct and the price does not break down critical level of 0.8854, the pair will continue to rise in the third wave. Breakdown of the critical level will lead to the further decline in price and enhancement of the correction of the senior level up to the levels of 0.88 – 0.8750.

USDCHF-D1

USDCHF-H4

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GBP/USD Wave analysis and forecast for 10.07 – 18.07

GBP/USD Wave analysis and forecast for 10.07 – 18.07: The pair is likely to decline.

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Estimated pivot point is at the level of 1.7180.

Our opinion: Sell the pair below the level of 1.7083 with the target of 1.69 – 1.68.

Alternative scenario: Breakout and consolidation above the level of1.7180 will enable the price to continue the rise up to the level of 1.73.

Analysis: Presumably, the formation of the ascending momentum in the fifth final wave of the senior level has completed. At the moment it is possible that the price is forming the reversal and small in-lead downward waves. If this assumption is correct, and the price does not break down the critical level of 1.7180, the pair will go down to the levels of 1.70 – 1.69. Otherwise, the price will go up to the level of 1.73 and the pattern of the fifth wave will extend.

GBPUSD-D1

GBPUSD-H4

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EUR/USD: Wave analysis and forecast of 10.07 – 18.07

EUR/USD: Wave analysis and forecast of 10.07 – 18.07: The pair is likely to decline.

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Estimated pivot point is at the level of 1.3700.

Our opinion: Sell the pair from correction below the level of 1.3700 with the target of 1.34 – 1.33.

Alternative scenario: Breakout of the level of 1.3700 will allow the price to continue the growth up to the levels of 1.3750 – 1.38.

Analysis: Presumably, the formation of the local correction in the second wave (ii), which took shape of the irregular plane, has completed. Locally, the small, in-lead impetus has been formed, while minor “bullish” correction is nearing completion. Critical level for this scenario is 1.3700. If this level is broken down, the pair will continue to rise, while the correction in the second wave of the senior level will reach the marks of 1.3750 – 1.38.

EURUSD-D1

EURUSD-H4

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Weekly Trading Forecasts on Major Pairs (July 7 – 11, 2014)‏

Weekly ForecastEURUSD
Dominant bias: Bearish
The recent bias on this pair was bullish, but everything has now gone bearish. It is no longer sensible to seek long trades on this pair because it has failed to break up through the resistance line at 1.3700. In addition, price has dropped by almost 100 pips and is now trading below the resistance line at 1.3650. The support line at 1.3600 is currently being tested and there is a high probability of it being breached. Should this occur, price is likely to seek the support line at 1.3550.

USDCHF
Dominant bias: Bearish
Although the dominant bias on this currency pair is bearish, price has been making serious bullish attempts – attempts so strong that they threaten the bearish bias which, to remain valid, needs the rally to be rejected at the resistance level of 0.8950. Any movement above that resistance level would indicate a seriously bullish turn. However, it is unlikely that price will be able to cross the strong resistance level at 0.9000 in the long run.

GBPUSD
Dominant bias: Bullish
This market has been able to remain bullish – breaking one distribution territory after the other. The price territory at 1.7150 was breached to the upside after much struggle and hesitation lasting for a few days. Price is now poised to move further upwards, and may reach another distribution territory at 1.7200 next week.

USDJPY
Dominant bias: Bullish
USD/JPY is bullish, although there is now some southward correction in the market. This correction cannot render the bullish outlook invalid, as long as price remains above the demand level at 101.50. Any movement below that demand level will result in clean bearish outlook.

EURJPY
Dominant bias: Bullish
The condition of this cross is very delicate, and one would do well to stay out of the market until there is a convincing directional movement. Price is bullish, but the sudden weakness in the EUR makes it illogical to seek long trades at the present. The possibility of price testing the demand zone at 138.50 cannot be ruled out.

I’d like to conclude this forecast with the following quote:

You want to be paid to trade. Winnings are your payment for taking risk.” – Jos Ross

USD/CAD Wave analysis and forecast for 04.07 – 11.07

USD/CAD Wave analysis and forecast for 04.07 – 11.07: The correction is nearing completion. The pair is likely to grow.

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Estimated pivot point is at the level of 1.0680.

Our opinion: Buy the pair above the level of 1.0680 with the target of 1.09 – 1.10.

Alternative scenario: The pair will continue to decline to the levels of 1.06 – 1.0550.

Analysis: Presumably, the formation of the downward correction in the fourth wave is nearing completion. Locally, it is likely that the formation of the downward impetus in wave с of 4 is nearing completion. If this assumption is correct, the reversal will become possible and the pair may begin to rise in the fifth wave of the senior level. Breakout of the level of 1.0680 will be the confirmation of the reversal and the beginning of the rise in the pair. Buy positions can be placed above this level, with the stop-loss below the local lows at the moment of the breakout.

USDCAD-D1

USDCAD-H4

 

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USD/JPY Wave analysis and forecast for 04.07 – 11.07

USD/JPY Wave analysis and forecast for 04.07 – 11.07: The pair is likely to grow.

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Estimated pivot point is at the level of 101.20.

Our opinion: Sell the pair from correction above the level of 101.20 with the target of 103.20.

Alternative scenario: Breakout of the level of 101.20 will allow the price to continue the decline to the level of 100.50.

Analysis: Within the daily timeframe it is not excluded that horizontal correction as the wave (B) is being formed, which may take a shape of a triangle. At the moment it is likely that the wave C, as the double zigzag, is being formed. Locally, the momentum as the first wave of a zigzag (a) is being developed. If this assumption is correct, after the completion of the local correction, the pair will continue to go up to the level of 103.20. Critical level for this scenario is 101.20.

USDJPY-D1

USDJPY-H4

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USD/CHF Wave analysis and forecast for 04.07 – 11.07

USD/CHF Wave analysis and forecast for 04.07 – 11.07: The pair is likely to grow.

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Estimated pivot point is at the level of 0.8854.

Our opinion: Buy the pair from the correction above the level of 0.8854 with the target of 0.9150 – 0.9200.

Alternative scenario: Breakout of the level of 0.8854 will enable the pair to continue the decline to the levels of 0.88 – 0.8750.

Analysis: Presumably, the formation of the local correction as the second wave has completed. Locally, it is possible that the small in-lead momentum is being formed. If this assumption is correct, the pair will continue to grow in the third wave. Critical level for this scenario is 0.8854. Breakout of this level will trigger further decline in price and deepening of the correction up to the levels of 0.88 – 0.8750.

USDCHF-D1

USDCHF-H4

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GBP/USD Wave analysis and forecast for 04.07 – 11.07

GBP/USD Wave analysis and forecast for 04.07 – 11.07: Uptrend is nearing completion. The pair is likely to start long-term decline.

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Estimated pivot point is at the level of 1.71.

Our opinion: Sell the pair below the level of 1.71 with the target of 1.69 – 1.68.

Alternative scenario: Breakout and consolidation above the level of 1.72 will enable the price to continue the rise up to the level of 1.73.

Analysis: Presumably, the formation of the ascending momentum in the fifth final wave of the senior level is nearing completion. At the moment, the fifth wave of the junior level is nearing completion. If this assumption is correct, in the near future the pair may start the decline.

GBPUSD-D1

GBPUSD-H4

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EUR/USD: Wave analysis and forecast of 04.07 – 11.07

EUR/USD: Wave analysis and forecast of 04.07 – 11.07: Completion of correction. The pair is likely to decline. Estimated pivot point is at the level of 1.3700.

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Our opinion: Sell the pair from correction below the level of 1.3700 with the target of1.34 – 1.33.

Alternative scenario: Breakout of the level of 1.3700 will allow the price to continue the growth up to the levels of 1.3750 – 1.38.

Analysis: Presumably, the formation of the local correction in the second wave (ii), which took shape of the irregular plane, has completed. Locally it is possible that in-lead small impetus is being formed; if this assumption is true, the pair will continue to decline in the third wave. Critical level for this scenario is the level of 1.3700. In case of breakdown of this level the pair will continue to grow and the correction will deepen to the level of 1.3750 – 1.38 in the second.

EURUSD-D1

EURUSD-H4

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Monthly Technical Reviews for Gold and Silver (July 2014)‏

gold-trading-online1GOLD (XAUUSD)
Dominant bias: Bullish
There is an established bullish bias in this market, with the greater probability that the price will continue going higher. However, there could be some temporary pullbacks along the way which should not take price below the demand levels at 1299.00 and 1288.00 for the bullish bias to remain valid. Meanwhile, price could potentially reach the supply levels at 1333.00 and 1344.00, having resumed a northward direction following a period of consolidation in the context of the extant uptrend.

SILVER (XAGUSD)
Dominant bias: Bullish
This is also a bull market, and with a valid Bullish Confirmation Pattern on the chart. It is quite normal to find Silver moving in a positive correlation with its Gold counterpart, so it has not been surprising to watch price trying to resume its northward movement after being recently caught in an equilibrium phase – really, nothing more than a pause in the northward journey. This is normal price action – sustained trending moves are invariably punctuated with pauses, after which the trend continues. Price could potentially reach the supply zones at 22.0000 and 22.1000 during July 2014.