Weekly Trading Forecasts on Major Pairs (August 4 – 8, 2014)‏

Here’s the market outlook for this week:

Dominant bias: Bearish
This pair has continued its southward journey with price breaking below the resistance line at 1.3400. This level is a war zone between bulls and bears, so price will be making some attempts to get back above it. Should the initial resistance line get broken and price moves up, another resistance line at 1.3450 will act as a secondary hurdle for the bulls, so any break above 1.3450 will pose a serious threat to the bearish trend. Meanwhile, the bearish trend seems likely to continue, pushing price towards the support lines at 1.3350 and 1.3300.

Dominant bias: Bullish
As forecast last week, USD/CHF was able to test the resistance level at 0.9100. This is an area where some bulls will want to take profits, as price ought to drop at least some way from there. For the bullish journey to continue, price needs to break that resistance level, going towards another resistance level at 0.9150. If this fails to occur, a near-term or medium-term bearish run is likely to begin.

Dominant bias: Bearish
Cable dropped by about 120 pips this week, and the bearish outlook is currently strong – forming a clean Bearish Confirmation Pattern in the chart. This means a high probability of price continuing even further downwards, testing the accumulation territories at 1.6850 and 1.6800 respectively – especially with the distribution territories at 1.6950 and 1.7000 acting as impediment to any rallies along the way.

Dominant bias: Bullish
The Greenback is strong, so it is no wonder that USD/JPY rallied – especially in the face of Yen weakness. This market has tested the supply level at 103.00, which must be broken before any serious northward movement can continue. However, some deep pullbacks towards the demand levels at 102.50 and 102.00 are possible.

Dominant bias: Bullish
EUR itself is not that strong but, as a result of exponential weakness in JPY, EUR/JPY has been able to reject its recent bearish bias, paving way for a new bullish signal. As long as price stays above the demand zone at 137.00, a bullish signal will make sense, and price could then even go up towards the supply zone at 138.00.

I’d like to conclude this forecast with the following quote:

Monthly Technical Reviews for Gold and Silver (July 2014)‏

gold-trading-online1GOLD (XAUUSD)
Dominant bias: Bullish
There is an established bullish bias in this market, with the greater probability that the price will continue going higher. However, there could be some temporary pullbacks along the way which should not take price below the demand levels at 1299.00 and 1288.00 for the bullish bias to remain valid. Meanwhile, price could potentially reach the supply levels at 1333.00 and 1344.00, having resumed a northward direction following a period of consolidation in the context of the extant uptrend.

Dominant bias: Bullish
This is also a bull market, and with a valid Bullish Confirmation Pattern on the chart. It is quite normal to find Silver moving in a positive correlation with its Gold counterpart, so it has not been surprising to watch price trying to resume its northward movement after being recently caught in an equilibrium phase – really, nothing more than a pause in the northward journey. This is normal price action – sustained trending moves are invariably punctuated with pauses, after which the trend continues. Price could potentially reach the supply zones at 22.0000 and 22.1000 during July 2014.

GOLD (Spot) intraday: further upside

Gold201352413200Pivot: 1377.00

Our preference: LONG positions above 1377 with targets @ 1398 & 1419.

Alternative scenario: The downside penetration of 1377 will call for a slide towards 1354 & 1336.

Comment: the next resistances are at 1398 and then at 1419.

Trend: ST Bearish; MT Bearish

Key levels Comment

1430** Fib retracement (61.8%)
1419*** Intraday resistance
1398** Intraday resistance
1387 Last
1377** Intraday pivot point
1354** Intraday support
1336** Intraday support