GBP/USD Wave analysis and forecast for 25.07 – 01.08

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Estimated pivot point is at the level of 1.7191.

Our opinion: Sell the pair from correction below the level of 1.7191 with the target of 1.6830 – 1.6720.

Alternative scenario: Breakout and consolidation above the level of 1.7191 will enable the price to continue the rise up to 1.73.

Analysis: Presumably, the formation of the ascending momentum in the fifth final wave of the senior level V of 5 of C has completed. At the moment it is possible that the first one-two, one-two wave of the large “bearish” correction is being formed. If this assumption is correct and the price does not break down the critical level of 1.7191, the pair will continue the decline to the levels of 1.6830 – 1.6720.

GBPUSD-D1

GBPUSD-H4

EUR/USD: Wave analysis and forecast of 25.07 – 01.08

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EUR/USD: Wave analysis and forecast of 25.07 – 01.08: The pair is likely to decline.

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Estimated pivot point is at the level of 1.3572.

Our opinion: Sell the pair from correction below the level of 1.3572 with the target of 1.3350 – 1.33.

Alternative scenario: Breakout of the level of 1.3572 will allow the price to continue the growth up to the levels of 1.3750 – 1.38.

Analysis: Presumably, the formation the third wave of the senior level (iii) is ongoing. Within this wave the “bearish’ impetus has completed as the third wave of the junior level. Locally, ascending correction is being formed iv of (iii). If assumption is correct, after the completion of the correction, the pair will continue to decline to the levels of 1.3350 – 1.33. Critical level for this scenario is 1.3572.

EURUSD-D1

EURUSD-H4

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Gold and Silver Update 22 July 2014

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gold-trading-online1GOLD (XAUUSD)
Dominant bias: Bearish
Gold experienced a massive sell-off last week, which completely invalidated the recent bullish bias. The market has been very volatile since then, with short-lived victories alternating between bulls and bears. In this kind of market, a wide stop is recommended; though the most probable direction is now southward. Only a movement above the supply level at 1324.00 could discount the probability. Meanwhile, price may reach the demand level at 1293.00 as that level was tested during the massive sell-off last week.

SILVER (XAGUSD)
Dominant bias: Bearish
There is a Bearish Confirmation Pattern in this market – brought about as a result of the extreme weakness displayed last week. Gold and Silver are highly correlated (positive correlation), so any discrepancy in direction presents a profitable trading opportunity, especially when causing transitory negative correlation. Right now, continued weakness is most likely, but volatility in the market must be taken into consideration. Sellers may want to take some profit at the support level of 20.3300, for this is an area where the price may bounce upwards quite significantly.

Weekly Trading Forecasts on Major Pairs (July 21 – 25, 2014)‏

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EURUSD
Dominant bias: Bearish
The dominant bias for this week is unchanged. The bearish trend in the market is now particularly strong, and could well continue that way for a while. Price may reach the support lines of 1.3500 and 1.3450 within the next few trading days but, meanwhile, there could be rallies in the context of the downtrend which may take price towards the resistance lines at 1.3550 and 1.3600 respectively. Those resistance lines, however, ought to act as a serious impediment to rallies aiming to invalidate the bearish bias.

USDCHF
Dominant bias: Bullish
In contrast to what EUR/USD is doing, this pair is in an uptrend. It is currently trading above the support level at 0.8950, and it should go further upwards following the current shallow retracement in the market. However, it is very unlikely that the great resistance level at 0.9000 will be breached to the upside, so bulls may want to take their profits at around that level. Price managing to breach the resistance level at 0.9000 and closing above it will indicate significant intent in the market and a continuation of the bullish bias.

GBPUSD
Dominant bias: Bullish
This currency pair has been able to maintain its recent bullish outlook in spite of its present inability to extend upwards in any significant way. The inability to move further upwards in a significant fashion has also resulted in a great risk of price sliding back down. In fact, any movement below the accumulation territory at 1.7050 would mean the bullish outlook has been rendered totally invalid. To avoid this, price needs to stay above that accumulation territory and, better still, move upwards again.

USDJPY
Dominant bias: Bearish
This market is still able to maintain its bearish bias as a result of strength in the Yen. The bearish outlook is expected to continue, though things may not be as significant as the situation on other JPY pairs. The demand level at 101.00 should, at least, be tested.

EURJPY
Dominant bias: Bearish
The weakness of this cross, brought about by weakness in the Euro plus strength in the Yen, has resulted in a clean Bearish Confirmation Pattern. Price is expected to continue downward, though the probabilities of transitory rallies and consolidations cannot be ruled out along the way.

USD/CAD Wave analysis and forecast for 10.07 – 18.07

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USD/CAD Wave analysis and forecast for 10.07 – 18.07: The pair is likely to grow. Estimated pivot point is at the level of 1.0616.

Our opinion: Buy the pair above the level of 1.0616 with the target of 1.09 – 1.10.

Alternative scenario: Breakout of the level of 1.0616 will enable the decline in the pair up to the level of 1.0550.

Analysis: Presumably, the formation of the downward correction in the fourth wave has completed. Locally, it is likely that the formation of the first in-lead wave has completed. If this assumption is correct, the pair will continue to rise not breaking down the critical level of 1.0616. Otherwise, the pair will continue to decline to the level of 1.0550 as the extension of wave с of 4.

USDCAD-d1

USDCAD-H4

USD/JPY Wave analysis and forecast for 10.07 – 18.07

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USD/JPY Wave analysis and forecast for 10.07 – 18.07: The pair is likely to grow.

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Estimated pivot point is at the level of 101.20.

Our opinion: Sell the pair from correction above the level of 101.20 with the target 103.00.

Alternative scenario: Breakout of the level of 101.20 will allow the price to continue the decline to the level of 100.50.

Analysis: Within the daily timeframe it is not excluded that horizontal correction as the wave (B) is being formed, which may take a shape of a triangle. At the moment it is likely that the wave C, as the double zigzag, is being formed. Locally, it seems that the third wave of a zigzag (c) is being developed. If this assumption is correct the pair will continue to rise to the level of 103.00. Critical level for this scenario is 101.20.

USDJPY-D1

USDJPY-H4

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USD/CHF Wave analysis and forecast for 10.07 – 18.07

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USD/CHF Wave analysis and forecast for 10.07 – 18.07: The pair is likely to go up.

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Estimated pivot point is at the level of 0.8854.

Our opinion: Buy the pair from the correction above the level of 0.8854 with the target of 0.9150 – 0.9200.

Alternative scenario: Breakout of the level of 0.8854 will enable the pair to continue the decline to the levels of 0.88 – 0.8750.

Analysis: Presumably, the formation of the local correction as the second wave has completed. Locally, small in-lead momentum has been formed, as well as minor bearish correction. If this assumption is correct and the price does not break down critical level of 0.8854, the pair will continue to rise in the third wave. Breakdown of the critical level will lead to the further decline in price and enhancement of the correction of the senior level up to the levels of 0.88 – 0.8750.

USDCHF-D1

USDCHF-H4

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GBP/USD Wave analysis and forecast for 10.07 – 18.07

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GBP/USD Wave analysis and forecast for 10.07 – 18.07: The pair is likely to decline.

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Estimated pivot point is at the level of 1.7180.

Our opinion: Sell the pair below the level of 1.7083 with the target of 1.69 – 1.68.

Alternative scenario: Breakout and consolidation above the level of1.7180 will enable the price to continue the rise up to the level of 1.73.

Analysis: Presumably, the formation of the ascending momentum in the fifth final wave of the senior level has completed. At the moment it is possible that the price is forming the reversal and small in-lead downward waves. If this assumption is correct, and the price does not break down the critical level of 1.7180, the pair will go down to the levels of 1.70 – 1.69. Otherwise, the price will go up to the level of 1.73 and the pattern of the fifth wave will extend.

GBPUSD-D1

GBPUSD-H4

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EUR/USD: Wave analysis and forecast of 10.07 – 18.07

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EUR/USD: Wave analysis and forecast of 10.07 – 18.07: The pair is likely to decline.

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Estimated pivot point is at the level of 1.3700.

Our opinion: Sell the pair from correction below the level of 1.3700 with the target of 1.34 – 1.33.

Alternative scenario: Breakout of the level of 1.3700 will allow the price to continue the growth up to the levels of 1.3750 – 1.38.

Analysis: Presumably, the formation of the local correction in the second wave (ii), which took shape of the irregular plane, has completed. Locally, the small, in-lead impetus has been formed, while minor “bullish” correction is nearing completion. Critical level for this scenario is 1.3700. If this level is broken down, the pair will continue to rise, while the correction in the second wave of the senior level will reach the marks of 1.3750 – 1.38.

EURUSD-D1

EURUSD-H4

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Weekly Trading Forecasts on Major Pairs (July 7 – 11, 2014)‏

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Weekly ForecastEURUSD
Dominant bias: Bearish
The recent bias on this pair was bullish, but everything has now gone bearish. It is no longer sensible to seek long trades on this pair because it has failed to break up through the resistance line at 1.3700. In addition, price has dropped by almost 100 pips and is now trading below the resistance line at 1.3650. The support line at 1.3600 is currently being tested and there is a high probability of it being breached. Should this occur, price is likely to seek the support line at 1.3550.

USDCHF
Dominant bias: Bearish
Although the dominant bias on this currency pair is bearish, price has been making serious bullish attempts – attempts so strong that they threaten the bearish bias which, to remain valid, needs the rally to be rejected at the resistance level of 0.8950. Any movement above that resistance level would indicate a seriously bullish turn. However, it is unlikely that price will be able to cross the strong resistance level at 0.9000 in the long run.

GBPUSD
Dominant bias: Bullish
This market has been able to remain bullish – breaking one distribution territory after the other. The price territory at 1.7150 was breached to the upside after much struggle and hesitation lasting for a few days. Price is now poised to move further upwards, and may reach another distribution territory at 1.7200 next week.

USDJPY
Dominant bias: Bullish
USD/JPY is bullish, although there is now some southward correction in the market. This correction cannot render the bullish outlook invalid, as long as price remains above the demand level at 101.50. Any movement below that demand level will result in clean bearish outlook.

EURJPY
Dominant bias: Bullish
The condition of this cross is very delicate, and one would do well to stay out of the market until there is a convincing directional movement. Price is bullish, but the sudden weakness in the EUR makes it illogical to seek long trades at the present. The possibility of price testing the demand zone at 138.50 cannot be ruled out.

I’d like to conclude this forecast with the following quote:

“You want to be paid to trade. Winnings are your payment for taking risk.” – Jos Ross

USD/CAD Wave analysis and forecast for 04.07 – 11.07

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USD/CAD Wave analysis and forecast for 04.07 – 11.07: The correction is nearing completion. The pair is likely to grow.

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Estimated pivot point is at the level of 1.0680.

Our opinion: Buy the pair above the level of 1.0680 with the target of 1.09 – 1.10.

Alternative scenario: The pair will continue to decline to the levels of 1.06 – 1.0550.

Analysis: Presumably, the formation of the downward correction in the fourth wave is nearing completion. Locally, it is likely that the formation of the downward impetus in wave с of 4 is nearing completion. If this assumption is correct, the reversal will become possible and the pair may begin to rise in the fifth wave of the senior level. Breakout of the level of 1.0680 will be the confirmation of the reversal and the beginning of the rise in the pair. Buy positions can be placed above this level, with the stop-loss below the local lows at the moment of the breakout.

USDCAD-D1

USDCAD-H4

 

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