EUR/USD Wave analysis and forecast of 29.08 – 05.09:

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EUR/USD Wave analysis and forecast of 29.08 – 05.09: European currency under pressure. The pair is likely to decline.

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Estimated pivot point is at the level of 1.3220.

Our opinion: Sell the pair below the level of 1.3220 with the target of 1.3040

Alternative scenario: Breakout and consolidation above the level of 1.3220 will make the price continue the rise to the levels of 1.33 – 1.3350 as part of the senior level correction.

Analysis: Supposedly, the third wave (iii) is still being formed with the impetus extension. It is likely to be completed near the level of 1.3040. If this assumption is correct and the price does not consolidate above the level of 1.3220, it’s logical to expect the pair to continue to decline to the levels of 1.31 – 1.3040.

EURUSD-D1

EUR-USD-H4

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EUR/USD Wave analysis and forecast of 22.08 – 29.08

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EUR/USD Wave analysis and forecast of 22.08 – 29.08: Bearish correction is likely to form .

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Estimated pivot point is at the level of 1.3240.

Our opinion: In the short-term: buy the pair from correction above the level of 1.3240 with the targets of 1.3350 – 1.3370. In the medium-term: wait for the completion of the fourth wave.

Alternative scenario: Breakout and consolidation below the level of 1.3240 will make the price go down to the levels of 1.32 – 1.3150 in the extension of the third wave.

Analysis: Presumably, the formation of the third wave (iii) of the bearish momentum has completed. Locally, the formation of the fourth wave (iv) is not excluded. If this assumption is correct, after the completion of the fourth wave the pair will continue to decline to the levels of 1.31 – 1.3040 in the final fifth wave (v).

EURUSD-D1

EUR-USD-H4

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GBP/USD Wave analysis and forecast of 22.08 – 29.08

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GBP/USD Wave analysis and forecast of 22.08 – 29.08: Downtrend continues.

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Estimated pivot point is at the level of 1.6640.

Our opinion: Sell the pair from correction below the level of 1.6640 with the target of 1.64 – 1.63.

Alternative scenario: Breakout and consolidation above the level of 1.6640 will make the price continue the rise to the levels of 1.67 – 1.68 as part of the deep correction.

Analysis: Presumably, the formation of the downward impetus in the first wave of the deep medium-term correction continues. By all appearances, the third wave has formed, and the local correction in the wave iv has started. If this assumption is correct and the price does not break down the critical level of 1.6640, the pair will continue to decline to the levels of 1.64 – 1.63.

GBPUSD-D1

GBPUSD-H4

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USD/СAD Wave analysis and forecast of 22.08 – 29.08

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USD/СAD Wave analysis and forecast of 22.08 – 29.08: The pair is likely to grow.

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Estimated pivot point is at the level of 1.0857.

Our opinion: Buy the pair from correction above the level of 1.0857 with the target of 1.1060.

Alternative scenario: Breakout and consolidation below the level of 1.0857 will make it possible for the price to continue the decline to the level of 1.08 in the second wave.

Analysis: Presumably, the formation of the ascending momentum in the first wave i of 5 of (3) is being completed. Locally, the fifth wave (v) is being formed and nearing completion. If this assumption is correct, it’s logical to expect a deep correction to form in the wave ii of 5 of (3) near the level of 1,08.

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USDCAD-D1 USDCAD-H4

USD/JPY Wave analysis and forecast of 22.08 – 29.08

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USD/JPY Wave analysis and forecast of 22.08 – 29.08: The pair is likely to decline.

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Estimated pivot point is at the level of 104.11.

Our opinion: Wait till the reversal forms and sell the pair with the targets of 101.50 – 101.0 if it consolidates below the level of 104.11.

Alternative scenario: Breakout and consolidation above the level of 104.11 will make it possible for the price to continue the growth to the level of 105.0.

Analysis: On the daily timeframe it is not excluded that the formation of the horizontal correction in a form of the wave (B) is nearing completion. At the moment it is likely that the formation of the wave (C) is being completed, within which, by all appearances, a diagonal triangle has formed. If this assumption is correct, it’s logical to expect soon the reversal and the start of a medium-term decline to the level of 99.45 in the wave (C).

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USDJPY-D1 USDJPY-H4

USD/CHF Wave analysis and forecast of 22.08 – 29.08

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USD/CHF Wave analysis and forecast of 22.08 – 29.08: Uptrend dominates.

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Estimated pivot point is at the level of 0.9145.

Our opinion: Sell the pair from correction below the level of 0.9145 with the target of 0.9018.

Alternative scenario: Breakout and consolidation above the level of 0.9145 will make it possible for the price to continue the growth to the level of 0.92.

Analysis: Presumably, the formation of the ascending momentum in the third wave (iii) has completed. Locally, a formation of the “bearish” correction in the fourth wave (iv) is not excluded. If this assumption is correct, after the completion of the correction the pair will continue to rise in the fifth wave to the levels of 0.9250 – 0.93.

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USDCHF-D1 USDCHF-H4

GBP/USD Wave analysis and forecast of 22.08 – 29.08

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GBP/USD Wave analysis and forecast of 22.08 – 29.08: Downtrend continues.

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Estimated pivot point is at the level of 1.6640.

Our opinion: Sell the pair from correction below the level of 1.6640 with the target of 1.64 – 1.63.

Alternative scenario: Breakout and consolidation above the level of 1.6640 will make the price continue the rise to the levels of 1.67 – 1.68 as part of the deep correction.

Analysis: Presumably, the formation of the downward impetus in the first wave of the deep medium-term correction continues. By all appearances, the third wave has formed, and the local correction in the wave iv has started. If this assumption is correct and the price does not break down the critical level of 1.6640, the pair will continue to decline to the levels of 1.64 – 1.63.

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GBPUSD-D1 GBPUSD-H4

EUR/USD Wave analysis and forecast of 22.08 – 29.08

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EUR/USD Wave analysis and forecast of 22.08 – 29.08: Bearish correction is likely to form .

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Estimated pivot point is at the level of 1.3240.

Our opinion: In the short-term: buy the pair from correction above the level of 1.3240 with the targets of 1.3350 – 1.3370. In the medium-term: wait for the completion of the fourth wave.

Alternative scenario: Breakout and consolidation below the level of 1.3240 will make the price go down to the levels of 1.32 – 1.3150 in the extension of the third wave.

Analysis: Presumably, the formation of the third wave (iii) of the bearish momentum has completed. Locally, the formation of the fourth wave (iv) is not excluded. If this assumption is correct, after the completion of the fourth wave the pair will continue to decline to the levels of 1.31 – 1.3040 in the final fifth wave (v).

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EURUSD-D1 EURUSD-H4

GBP/USD Wave analysis and forecast for 08.08 – 15.08

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GBP/USD Wave analysis and forecast for 08.08 – 15.08: Downtrend remains. Estimated pivot point is at the level of 1.6890.

Our opinion: In the short-term: sell the pair from correction below the level of 1.6890 6925 with the target of 1.6730. In the medium-term: wait for the completion of the fifth wave and in case of reversal, sell the pair with the target of 1.70.

Alternative scenario: Breakout and consolidation above the level of 1.6890 will enable the price to continue the rise up to 1.70, as part of correction.

Analysis: Presumably, the formation of the downward momentum in the first one-two, one-two wave of the deep medium-term correction continues. It seems at the moment that the formation of the fourth wave has completed and the fifth, final wave is being formed. If this assumption is correct, after the completion of the fifth wave the pair will go up undergoing correction in the wave ii.

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GBPUSD-D1

GBPUSD-H4

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EUR/USD: Wave analysis and forecast of 08.08 – 15.08

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EUR/USD: Wave analysis and forecast of 08.08 – 15.08: The pair is undergoing correction. Downtrend dominates. Estimated pivot point is at the level of 1.3450.

Our opinion: In the short-term: sell the pair from correction above the level of 1.3330 with the target o 1.3450. In the medium-term: sell the pair from correction below the level of 1.3450 with the target of 1.32.

Alternative scenario: Breakout of the level of 1.3450 will allow the price to continue the rise up to the levels of 1.3500 – 1.3550.

Analysis: Presumably, the formation the third wave (iii) of the bearish momentum has completed. Locally the formation of the fourth wave has begun (iv). If this assumption is correct, after its completion the pair will continue to decline to 1.32.

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EURUSD-D1

EURUSD-H4

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Weekly Trading Forecasts on Major Pairs (August 4 – 8, 2014)‏

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Here’s the market outlook for this week:

EURUSD
Dominant bias: Bearish
This pair has continued its southward journey with price breaking below the resistance line at 1.3400. This level is a war zone between bulls and bears, so price will be making some attempts to get back above it. Should the initial resistance line get broken and price moves up, another resistance line at 1.3450 will act as a secondary hurdle for the bulls, so any break above 1.3450 will pose a serious threat to the bearish trend. Meanwhile, the bearish trend seems likely to continue, pushing price towards the support lines at 1.3350 and 1.3300.

USDCHF
Dominant bias: Bullish
As forecast last week, USD/CHF was able to test the resistance level at 0.9100. This is an area where some bulls will want to take profits, as price ought to drop at least some way from there. For the bullish journey to continue, price needs to break that resistance level, going towards another resistance level at 0.9150. If this fails to occur, a near-term or medium-term bearish run is likely to begin.

GBPUSD
Dominant bias: Bearish
Cable dropped by about 120 pips this week, and the bearish outlook is currently strong – forming a clean Bearish Confirmation Pattern in the chart. This means a high probability of price continuing even further downwards, testing the accumulation territories at 1.6850 and 1.6800 respectively – especially with the distribution territories at 1.6950 and 1.7000 acting as impediment to any rallies along the way.

USDJPY
Dominant bias: Bullish
The Greenback is strong, so it is no wonder that USD/JPY rallied – especially in the face of Yen weakness. This market has tested the supply level at 103.00, which must be broken before any serious northward movement can continue. However, some deep pullbacks towards the demand levels at 102.50 and 102.00 are possible.

EURJPY
Dominant bias: Bullish
EUR itself is not that strong but, as a result of exponential weakness in JPY, EUR/JPY has been able to reject its recent bearish bias, paving way for a new bullish signal. As long as price stays above the demand zone at 137.00, a bullish signal will make sense, and price could then even go up towards the supply zone at 138.00.

I’d like to conclude this forecast with the following quote: